The text below was actually a comment of mine on another Redditor's post, but since I think they all left for the day, I have decided to create a standalone post with it.
Even though it's my theory, tbh I prefer the other theory of mine, which is:
From the COVID-19 outbreak to the great oil war between Russia & Saudi to the market crash, this whole event is a live simulation that some powerful group is executing for their future plan. But today, I would like to present my less favourable theory: Theory of How COVID-19 Pandemic Has Started.
Obviously, for some parts, I got the sources. But for others, it's just a speculation based on the well known
(?) inner working (political) systems of China.
Both Shanghai clique (Jiang Zemin) and Communist Youth League (Hu Jintao) want to unseat Xi Jinping. .A. Because:
Shanghai clique detests Xi Jinping because Xi & his Princelings put many key politburo of Shanghai clique in jail in the name of anti-corruption.
And Princelings took away Shanghai clique's influences
from big key Chinese businesses such as Wanda Group, Alibaba Group & Tencent.
Communist Youth League loathes Xi Jinping because Xi & his Princelings broke China's 太上王 institution, the nation's long standing political treaty among the ruling classes, by sidelining most of Hu Jintao's prominent politburo in the council.
Subsequently, the political power of Li Keqiang's (Communist Youth League) within State Council has been dramatically minimized over the years, although he is the No. 2 party figure.
It was a break with two previous generations of leadership, which were based on consensus among members of the ruling party’s inner circle of power, the Standing Committee, a.k.a China's 太上王 institution. So,
Shanghai clique and Communist Youth League decided to work together to hatch a seemingly perfect plan:
- Unseating Xi Jinping would be the best outcome, but they knew it would be laborious.
- While keep trying to unseat Xi, this operation by their plan should be something to weaken Xi Jinping's power within State Council.
- The operation should also reboot the political power of Li Keqiang to re-boost the current status of Communist Youth League within State Council.
- The operation should also restore the financial flow for Shanghai clique & the businesses that are still under Shanghai clique's control.
- By weakening Xi Jinping's power, the operation should reinstate Shanghai clique's control of (at least some of) key businesses of the nation.
- Used-to-be hyper wealthy
Shanghai clique decided they were to be okay with what's going to happen in the field, colossal businesses loss in the region;
most of better businesses used to be owned by them have been already taken away by Princelings anyway. And 2)
a while ago their foreign financial backers, such as Henry Kissinger, George Soros & Koos Bekker who used to be kissy kissy with them, left for the new power in China. Now those backers seems to be in bed with Xi. And 3)
Xi started to crack down Shanghai clique's assets hidden overseas with the inside-info those backers provided to Xi. exploding head gifs
- The operation's process must appear natural, so the blame could never fall onto neither of Shanghai clique nor Communist Youth League.
- For the operation, they needed to pick an appropriate region where the influence of Shanghai clique and Communist Youth League were still prevalent.
- All the blame should fall under Xi & Princelings' political and bureaucratic incompetence. .B. Preparation:
- Dr. Wang Yanyi is a Chinese immunologist. She is the director general at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the deputy director for Wuhan in the China Zhi Gong Party.
- Dr. Wang Yanyi is married to Chinese professor Shu Hongbing.
- Shu Hongbing is a Chinese cytologist and immunologist. He is a tier-1 member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and a close associate of Jiang Mianheng thru said Academy and Shanghai Tech University connection.
- Jiang Mianheng is Jiang Zemin's son (Jiang Zemin = No. 1 in Shanghai clique). Jiang Mianheng has served as Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the first President of ShanghaiTech University.
- Because many international bodies are closely monitoring the NBL-4 facility in Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory and in turn the NBL-3 facility in the same laboratory attracts fewer observing eyes from outside bodies, they decided to use the latter to pick & modify the pathogen.
- The pathogen's spreading speed should be rapid to achieve the maximum effect.
- Jiang Chaoliang is a pro-Shanghai clique Chinese politician and he was the Communist Party Secretary of Hubei.
- Later, as a result of his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, Jiang Chaoliang has been replaced by Ying Yong, a close ally of Xi Jinping. .C. Operation:
- The operators released a pathogen of their choice in Hubei near the end of 2019. The holiday season was coming up, so there would be large frequent crowds to spread the pathogen.
- Some people in the region started to experience flu like symptoms but they didn't think much about it because it's a Winter season.
- Seeing numerous passengers were unusually ill, the cab drivers in Wuhan city knew something was up with the area close to the city laboratory.
- The number of flu
patients in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University and Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University started to curiously go up.
- The CPC bureaucrats in said hospitals started to report the situation to their superiors. Then, in turn, those superiors reported to politburo in State Council.
- Finally, Xi Jinping received the news regarding the situation in Wuhan city.
- On Jan. 7, 2020, Xi demanded during a Politburo Standing Committee to take care of the situation.
- Jiang Chaoliang and the other pro-Shanghai clique politburo in Hubei province pretended listening to Xi's order but they quietly ignored it by suppressing the evidences + sabotaging the field. -- Have you read the article which was reporting that the researchers received a gag order from China’s NHC with instructions to destroy the samples?
- Shanghai clique & Communist Youth League told their relatives and close associates to leave the region. It would look business as usual
because it's near the Chinese New Year holiday season.
- Remember, Academics & the related institutions in China are Shanghai clique's turf.
- On Jan. 14, W.H.O declared that "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan, China."
- On Jan. 20, 2020, after realizing his previous directions were conveniently ignored, Xi gave special instructions to control the now-became outbreak.
- But again the pro-Shanghai clique politburo in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province pretended following Xi's instructions but ultimately ignored those by still sabotaging the proceedings.
- Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang allowed and in fact applauded a massive annual potluck banquet for 40,000 families from a city precinct, who (on the ordinary people levels) are mostly the supporters of Xi Jinping. ---- It's going to be interesting to see who they would blame later on if there were to be a disaster in the region.
- On Jan. 23, 2020, after having confirmed their relatives and close associates left the region, they imposed a lockdown in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province.
- Before the lockdown, 5 million people have already left Wuhan city. It was on. Some of them went to their homes in the different regions of China. But some people with connections & means left China and went to U.S., South Korea, Iran, Italy, & France, which are Chinese tourists' popular destinations.
- Xi Jinping and his Princelings now suspected something was not right. Xi disappeared from the public view.
- Willy Lam, a political scientist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, commented that Xi Jinping's activities after his lengthy public disappearance looked like an attempt to shift blame to Li Keqiang if progress in fighting the disease is unsatisfactory. .D. Outcome:
- With his performance of containing the situation were being praised by State Council, Li Keqiang's political power has been expanded within the council.
---- Li Keqiang belongs to China's Communist Youth League
, which has been under Shanghai clique
- On Feb. 1, the US was the one of the first nations in the world
along with Russia and N. Korea that banned not just Chinese nationals but all foreigners travelling from mainland China, declares public health emergency.
And China and some US media criticized Trump for stoking fear and overreacting.
- On Feb. 3, China is expected to gradually implement a larger stimulus packages
(in total) than a USD $572 billion from 2008. ---- Let's see where those money will go to. (Actually we would never find out but it will probably go to key people of Shanghai clique.)
- On Feb. 7, China National Petroleum Corp. has recently declared Force Majeure
on gas imports. They are trying to make a breathing room for their foreign exchange reserves shortage. China's foreign exchange reserves fell to mere USD $3.1 trillion
in Oct. 2019.
- On Feb. 12, the US targets Russian oil company for helping Venezuela skirt sanctions
. ---- My guess is that at this moment, the US admin noticed something is up, so they tried to secure some leverage against Russia.
- Around Feb. 24, China is rumoured (on Twitter) to delay its US-China phase one trade deal implementation indefinitely which includes the increasement of China's purchasing American products & services by at least $200 billion over the next two years.
- If China indeed delays the phase one trade deal implementation, there won't be many comebacks (such as more tariffs) that the US can carry through, because now the pandemic is happening within the US Soil.
- On Feb. 24, S&P 500 Index started to drop. Opened with 3225.89 and closed 3128.21. By Feb. 28, it dropped to 2954.22.
- On Feb 28, China transferred more than 80,000 Uighurs to factories used by global brands
such as Apple, Nike, & Volkswagen & among others.
- On Mar. 1, China's State Council super tighten up their already draconian internet law
- On Mar. 1, Princelings
published an awesome
propaganda called A Battle Against Epidemic: China Combating COVID-19 in 2020
which compiles numerous state media accounts on the heroic leadership of Xi Jinping, the vital role of the Communist Party, and the superiority of the Chinese system in fighting the virus.
- Starting at Mar. 3, the Fed has taken two significant measures
to provide monetary stimulus.
- On Mar. 4, Xinhua News, China's official state-run press agency posted an article "Be bold: the world should thank China
- Said article states
"If China retaliates against the US at this time, it will also announce strategic control over medical products
, and ban exports of said products to the US. ... If China declares today that its drugs are for domestic use only (banning exports), the US will fall into the hell of new coronavirus epidemic."
- This Xinhua article would be in part Shanghai clique's grand posturing (who are holding political power & capacity in medicals & biochemicals of China) to show off to people of China that Shanghai clique is still relevant in power.
- On Mar. 5, Shanghai Index has recovered
the coronavirus loss
- On Mar. 7, Saudi's Ahmed bin Abdulaziz
and Muhammad bin Nayef were arrested on the claims of plotting to overthrow King Salman. ---- Ahmed bin Abdulaziz is known to have very tight investment-interest relationship
with Bill Gates, Bill Browder, Blackstone, & Morgan Stanley.
- Interestingly, one common factor that connects Bill Gates, Bill Browder, Blackstone, & Morgan Stanley is China.
- On Mar. 8, the Russia–Saudi oil price war has initiated.
The ostensible reason was simple. China, the biggest importer of oil from Saudi and Russia, was turning back tankers
as the coronavirus outbreak forced the economy to a standstill.
- On, Mar. 13, China's Ministry of Commerce states that China is now the best region for global investment hedging.
- On Mar. 16, the fan club of Europe globalists (:D) has published a piece, China and Coronavirus: From Home-Made Disaster to Global Mega-Opportunity.
The piece says the following:
Combined with the new aid disbursements and advice the other countries, Chinese leaders appear to be hoping that their heavily-promoted success in fighting the virus helps Beijing appear like a global leader on public health – and thus ready to take on other types of global leadership.
“The Chinese method is the only method that has proved successful” [in fighting the virus], is a message spread online in China by influencers
, including many essentially promoting propaganda.
This is not necessarily true. After all, other wealthy Asian states have shown different, effective models. But it is certainly a message that seems to be resonating with opinion leaders around the world.
- On Mar. 16, the US stocks ended sharply lower
with the Dow posting its worst point drop in history and falling to its lowest level in nearly three years. But some showed a faint hint of uncertain hope
Many thanks for reading up my long ass post!! -- The updated version is hopefully coming soon. :D
I'm doing a tribute to the 24 days of Christmas by going over the financial statements of 24 companies that are considered downrange, speculative, and just plain high risk.
Our first six stops is fondly captured here
, the second one is here
, and the third set is here
All opinions are my own, and certainly not a recommendation for or against any of them, or to buy or sell.
Many are companies I've never looked at before. In some cases, I'd never even heard of them. I limited myself to 45mins to each, and kept mainly to most recent financial statements and MD&A's. You'll likely know more about the company than me if you're following them. This is only my reactions with a brief commentary about what I saw in the financial statements. IN - Inmed Pharmacuetical
- Another pharma. Specifically leaves THC out of their scope
- Relatively clean capital structure
- Heavy IR expense, likely web development, brand build, props. Should look really good for that cash, shouldn’t be recurring
- Lots of cheap optionality forward, matches dev cycle timeline.
- Very specific applications, only two they’ve got on - a rare skin disease and glaucoma. - The former is probably chasing a high return, latter is the big one. Pain mgmt next, years away.
- Exec pay heavy, seems typical.
- Will need another raise in about 9 mos given cash burn. 28MM in stack, but few likely available to wring cash out of.
- Spending consistent QoQ
Boring. Financials look relatively clean. Risk centres on whether their potential treatment for glaucoma is better than existing therapies. If you know any specializing clinical ophthalmologists, I’d ask them. Rare disease drugs usually are chasing high cost drugs paid for by public systems. Again, pharma isn’t my wheelhouse. But I have a high investor interest in the end use THC and CBD. Because I’m a commodity guy, that’s why. TGIF - Friday Night Inc.
- Tried to start as booze outfit, looks like it flopped. Maybe just a buy in by someone, or they’re absorbing the losses from it slowly
- Note 1 in financials sums up exposure to nation level risk. Earnings aren’t in Canada
- 32MM of cheap (cheap) warrants out there. Somebody hit a payday.
- 5 year $0.16 call options. Big payday as well.
- The two previous items helps to describe the typical shitty capital structure of the sector. Positive is that these guys have earnings to help support.
- Been building out for awhile, shows sophistication.
- Not sure what $650k in ‘power equipment’ exactly is
- Looks like they convert to CAD at the cash register level, no fx exposures. Nice change of pace from everyone else.
Blech to branding. If it was a car, it’d have flames painted on the sides and a naked chick shaped air freshener. Hard to pin the back story, there is one. Earnings are there, assets getting picked up, including land for expansion or grow. Diversifying a little, doesn’t look like they’re focusing on much but core business. Business risk is in competitive environment in Nevada and customer retention important - might be a gazillion of them there soon. I ran out of time trying to get my head around their story, store location(s) should reveal target market. Relatively straightforward financials, revenues will need to increase to support market cap and internal hurdle rate. Potential to move up a weight class with solid growth in earnings. ICC International Cannabis Corp
- Restated financials for first 6 mos of 2017 - ugh. Not surprisingly.
- Companies in Columbia, British Virgin Islands, sales to Mexico yada yada.
- Unwinding multi-national’s financials sucks in mature industries, let alone those in expansion mode.
- 2 dozen Sedar filings past 45 days, multiple topics/filings. They’re going to need more server memory at Sedar
- Capital structure typical, less busy than others in terms of # of transactions
- Licensing costs will hit margins
- Has land and buildings in/near production. More than a section of land (1 mile2 ) outdoor for hemp alone.
- Bought $3MM greenhouse for cannabis.
Financial statements that report on operations in multiple jurisdictions are complex relative to a single one. ICC have assets, permits, but few sales to report. Logistics and movement of psychoactive substances across borders is not simple either. If one is looking to invest in something like this, best to have a really good handle on where the outfit is at, and how well it can execute. Way beyond the purposes of this crawl. All I can say has been said. MGW - Maple Leaf Green World
- No license yet
- No hedging of forex, what is up with this sector? $400k dumped, likely on unhedged capital commitments. Would’ve cost a few grand to have taken that out.
- Does have cash. They’ve promised a 30,000 sq/ft up and running by Dec31st. Build appears to have been slow.
- Expansion plans into BC and Nevada, early stages. JV in California. Ambitious.
- Not alot of optionality in capital structure, but long dated. Same expensive stuff, lots less of it. Will likely be alot more of it soon given their ambition.
- Cheap in operating so far, modest, looks focused on build out.
- A civilized 14 pages.
- Looks head down, ass up (that means working hard)
- No downstream branding or licensing yet. A pure grower at this point, feels like it’ll stay that way.
Current cash won’t support all the hopes and dreams, will need alot more. Needs to monetize any production asap. Fair amount of shares out there. Will probably be back to markets/private placement shortly. Threat is that it’s late to the party. If they’re real and execute with precision, could be really something. That’s a definite positive. Too many in this space step over dollars to pick up nickels, this one looks austerely managed. Needs license pronto. VGW - Valens GroWorks
- Pretty typical for the space and where they are at
- Dedicated off take of product through Canopy
- Pretty expensive mgmt at this stage relative to others
- Not a ton of optionality in capital structure as of Aug. Starting to increase by transactions since.
- Pricy lease, looks like they’re going to own the building or are upgrading. Not very large at 625kg/year. 38k sq/ft claimed expansion potential.
- Extraction focused, has a lab as subsidiary
- Couple of promises of expansion about Nanaimo & Columbia
- Some sort of Arizona tie in, doesn’t look like anything other than a hobby
- No update to corporate presence beyond initial roadshow and top heavy for size, at least in intro.
Pretty ‘family’ in nature through related payments and all. Looks fallow at the moment awaiting license upgrades. Not a very professional feel, looks splatter gun. Also looks to be getting there, but can't get a feel about ops. Still raising money. Potential, but could be hamstrung by lack of capacity. Throughput revenue on extraction would be sexy, but unknowns abound about capacity and planned operating end state. TRTC - TerraTech Corporation
- Looks like peer of TGIF
- No CDN financials, US:OTC market
- Elves balked, started talking about resistance and power to the people.
- If you heard about it here first, you are in the same sleigh as me.
Execution looks good in-stores. I know nothing else. Consider this one like a Christmas gift you have to assemble.
That’s it. The elves are gassed again, and are looking for the rum I hid after their last fiasco. I'm thinking about giving it back to them, they've been filling shot glasses with the liquids left in the drink mats on the bar.
I am grateful to have gotten this last one out of them. I attached several that were left out and reasons below - just to ensure you get all the Dive Bar goodies that are in the finger bowl.
There isn’t much salt left on the peanuts though, the elves had licked it off before putting them back.
Merry Christmas from us here. We might post a naughty and nice list out of the 24 looked at if the elves are willing.
- GBLX - pharma-ish sorta-like. Infomercial feel. I have no clue about company.
- DVA/LXX - primarily delivery technology
- DOJA - too much change going on in current business combination for a quick look
- CRZ - all over the map in geography and revenue stream exposure. Ultimately peripheral to value chain.
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