Thanks to everyone who responded to the previous pieces on risk management. We ended up with nearly 2,000 upvotes and I'm delighted so many of you found it useful.submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
This time we're going to focus on a new area: reacting to and trading around news and fundamental developments.
A lot of people get this totally wrong and the main reason is that they trade the news at face value, without considering what the market had already priced in. If you've ever seen what you consider to be "good" or "better than forecast" news come out and yet been confused as the pair did nothing or moved in the opposite direction to expected, read on...
We are going to do this in two parts.
IntroductionKnowing how to use and benefit from the economic calendar is key for all traders - not just news traders.
In this chapter we are going to take a practical look at how to use the economic calendar. We are also going to look at how to interpret news using second order thinking.
The key concept is learning what has already been ‘priced in’ by the market so we can estimate how the market price might react to the new information.
Why use an economic calendarThe economic calendar contains all the scheduled economic releases for that day and week. Even if you purely trade based on technical analysis, you still must know what is in store.
Why? Three main reasons.
Firstly, releases can help provide direction. They create trends. For example if GBPUSD has been fluctuating aimlessly within a range and suddenly the Bank of England starts raising rates you better believe the British Pound will start to move. Big news events often start long-term trends which you can trade around.
Secondly, a lot of the volatility occurs around these events. This is because these events give the market new information. Prior to a big scheduled release like the US Non Farm Payrolls you might find no one wants to take a big position. After it is released the market may move violently and potentially not just in a single direction - often prices may overshoot and come back down. Even without a trend this volatility provides lots of trading opportunities for the day trader.
Finally, these releases can change trends. Going into a huge release because of a technical indicator makes little sense. Everything could reverse and stop you out in a moment. You need to be aware of which events are likely to influence the positions you have on so you can decide whether to keep the positions or flatten exposure before the binary event for which you have no edge.
Most traders will therefore ‘scan’ the calendar for the week ahead, noting what the big events are and when they will occur. Then you can focus on each day at a time.
Reading the economic calendar
Most calendars show events cut by trading day. Helpfully they adjust the time of each release to your own timezone. For example we can see that the Bank of Japan Interest Rate decision is happening at 4am local time for this particular London-based trader.
Note that some events do not happen at a specific time. Think of a Central Banker’s speech for example - this can go on for an hour. It is not like an economic statistic that gets released at a precise time. Clicking the finger emoji will open up additional information on each event.
Event importanceHow do you define importance? Well, some events are always unimportant. With the greatest of respect to Italian farmers, nobody cares about mundane releases like Italian farm productivity figures.
Other events always seem to be important. That means, markets consistently react to them and prices move. Interest rate decisions are an example of consistently high importance events.
So the Medium and High can be thought of as guides to how much each event typically affects markets. They are not perfect guides, however, as different events are more or less important depending on the circumstances.
For example, imagine the UK economy was undergoing a consumer-led recovery. The Central Bank has said it would raise interest rates (making GBPUSD move higher) if they feel the consumer is confident.
Consumer confidence data would suddenly become an extremely important event. At other times, when the Central Bank has not said it is focused on the consumer, this release might be near irrelevant.
Knowing what's priced inNext to each piece of economic data you can normally see three figures. Actual, Forecast, and Previous.
Once you understand that markets move based on the news vs expectations, you will be less confused by price action around events
This is a common misunderstanding. Say everyone is expecting ‘great’ economic data and it comes out as ‘good’. Does the price go up?
You might think it should. After all, the economic data was good. However, everyone expected it to be great and it was just … good. The great release was ‘priced in’ by the market already. Most likely the price will be disappointed and go down.
By priced in we simply mean that the market expected it and already bought or sold. The information was already in the price before the announcement.
Incidentally the official forecasts can be pretty stale and might not accurately capture what active traders in the market expect. See the following example.
An example of pricing inFor example, let’s say the market is focused on the number of Tesla deliveries. Analysts think it’ll be 100,000 this quarter. But Elon Musk tweets something that hints he’s really, really, really looking forward to the analyst call. Tesla’s price ticks higher after the tweet as traders put on positions, reflecting the sentiment that Tesla is likely to massively beat the 100,000. (This example is not a real one - it just serves to illustrate the concept.)
Tesla deliveries are up hugely vs last quarter ... but they are disappointing vs market expectations ... what do you think will happen to the stock?
On the day it turns out Tesla hit 101,000. A better than the officially forecasted result - sure - but only marginally. Way below what readers of Musk's twitter account might have thought. Disappointed traders may sell their longs and close out the positions. The stock might go down on ‘good’ results because the market had priced in something even better. (This example is not a real one - it just serves to illustrate the concept.)
SurveysIt can be a little hard to know what the market really expects. Often the published forecasts are stale and do not reflect what actual traders and investors are looking for.
One of the most effective ways is a simple survey of investors. Something like a Twitter poll like this one from CNBC is freely available and not a bad barometer.
CNBC, Bloomberg and other business TV stations often have polls on their Twitter accounts that let you know what others are expecting
Interest rates decisionsWe know that interest rates heavily affect currency prices.
For major interest rate decisions there’s a great tool on the CME’s website that you can use.
See the link for a demo
This gives you a % probability of each interest rate level, implied by traded prices in the bond futures market. For example, in the case above the market thinks there’s a 20% chance the Fed will cut rates to 75-100bp.
Obviously this is far more accurate than analyst estimates because it uses actual bond prices where market participants are directly taking risk and placing bets. It basically looks at what interest rate traders are willing to lend at just before/after the date of the central bank meeting to imply the odds that the market ascribes to a change on that date.
Always try to estimate what the market has priced in. That way you have some context for whether the release really was better or worse than expected.
Second order thinkingYou have to know what the market expects to try and guess how it’ll react. This is referred to by Howard Marks of Oaktree as second-level thinking. His explanation is so clear I am going to quote extensively.
It really is hard to improve on this clarity of thought:
First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in “The outlook for the company is favorable, meaning the stock will go up.” Second-level thinking is deep, complex and convoluted.
He explains first-level thinking:
The first-level thinker simply looks for the highest quality company, the best product, the fastest earnings growth or the lowest p/e ratio. He’s ignorant of the very existence of a second level at which to think, and of the need to pursue it.
The above describes the guy who sees a 101,000 result and buys Tesla stock because - hey, this beat expectations. Marks goes on to describe second-level thinking:
The second-level thinker goes through a much more complex process when thinking about buying an asset. Is it good? Do others think it’s as good as I think it is? Is it really as good as I think it is? Is it as good as others think it is? Is it as good as others think others think it is? How will it change? How do others think it will change? How is it priced given: its current condition; how do I think its conditions will change; how others think it will change; and how others think others think it will change? And that’s just the beginning. No, this isn’t easy.
In this version of events you are always thinking about the market’s response to Tesla results.
What do you think they’ll announce? What has the market priced in? Is Musk reliable? Are the people who bought because of his tweet likely to hold on if he disappoints or exit immediately? If it goes up at which price will they take profit? How big a number is now considered ‘wow’ by the market?
As Marks says: not easy. However, you need to start getting into the habit of thinking like this if you want to beat the market. You can make gameplans in advance for various scenarios.
Here are some examples from Marks to illustrate the difference between first order and second order thinking.
Some further examples
Trying to react fast to headlines is impossible in today’s market of ultra fast computers. You will never win on speed. Therefore you have to out-think the average participant.
Coming up in part IINow that we have a basic understanding of concepts such as expectations and what the market has priced in, we can look at some interesting trading techniques and tools.
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
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How exactly did the British manage to diddle us and drain our wealth’ ? was the question that Basudev Chatterjee (later editor of a volume in the Towards Freedom project) had posed to me 50 years ago when we were fellow-students abroad.This is begging the question.
After decades of research I find that using India’s commodity export surplus as the measure and applying an interest rate of 5%, the total drain from 1765 to 1938, compounded up to 2016, comes to £9.2 trillion; since $4.86 exchanged for £1 those days, this sum equals about $45 trillion.This is completely meaningless. To understand why it's meaningless consider India's annual coconut exports. These are almost certainly a surplus but the surplus in trade is countered by the other country buying the product (indeed, by definition, trade surpluses contribute to the GDP of a nation which hardly plays into intuitive conceptualisations of drain).
She [Patnaik] consistently adopts statistical assumptions (such as compound interest at a rate of 5% per annum over centuries) that exaggerate the magnitude of the drainMoving on:
The exact mechanism of drain, or transfers from India to Britain was quite simple.Convenient.
Drain theory possessed the political merit of being easily grasped by a nation of peasants. [...] No other idea could arouse people than the thought that they were being taxed so that others in far off lands might live in comfort. [...] It was, therefore, inevitable that the drain theory became the main staple of nationalist political agitation during the Gandhian era.- Chandra et al. (1989)
The key factor was Britain’s control over our taxation revenues combined with control over India’s financial gold and forex earnings from its booming commodity export surplus with the world. Simply put, Britain used locally raised rupee tax revenues to pay for its net import of goods, a highly abnormal use of budgetary funds not seen in any sovereign country.The issue with figures like these is they all make certain methodological assumptions that are impossible to prove. From Roy in Frankema et al. (2019):
the "drain theory" of Indian poverty cannot be tested with evidence, for several reasons. First, it rests on the counterfactual that any money saved on account of factor payments abroad would translate into domestic investment, which can never be proved. Second, it rests on "the primitive notion that all payments to foreigners are "drain"", that is, on the assumption that these payments did not contribute to domestic national income to the equivalent extent (Kumar 1985, 384; see also Chaudhuri 1968). Again, this cannot be tested. [...] Fourth, while British officers serving India did receive salaries that were many times that of the average income in India, a paper using cross-country data shows that colonies with better paid officers were governed better (Jones 2013).Indeed, drain theory rests on some very weak foundations. This, in of itself, should be enough to dismiss any of the other figures that get thrown out. Nonetheless, I felt it would be a useful exercise to continue exploring Patnaik's take on drain theory.
The East India Company from 1765 onwards allocated every year up to one-third of Indian budgetary revenues net of collection costs, to buy a large volume of goods for direct import into Britain, far in excess of that country’s own needs.So what's going on here? Well Roy (2019) explains it better:
Colonial India ran an export surplus, which, together with foreign investment, was used to pay for services purchased from Britain. These payments included interest on public debt, salaries, and pensions paid to government offcers who had come from Britain, salaries of managers and engineers, guaranteed profts paid to railway companies, and repatriated business profts. How do we know that any of these payments involved paying too much? The answer is we do not.So what was really happening is the government was paying its workers for services (as well as guaranteeing profits - to promote investment - something the GoI does today Dalal (2019), and promoting business in India), and those workers were remitting some of that money to Britain. This is hardly a drain (unless, of course, Indian diaspora around the world today are "draining" it). In some cases, the remittances would take the form of goods (as described) see Chaudhuri (1983):
It is obvious that these debit items were financed through the export surplus on merchandise account, and later, when railway construction started on a large scale in India, through capital import. Until 1833 the East India Company followed a cumbersome method in remitting the annual home charges. This was to purchase export commodities in India out of revenue, which were then shipped to London and the proceeds from their sale handed over to the home treasury.While Roy's earlier point argues better paid officers governed better, it is honestly impossible to say what part of the repatriated export surplus was a drain, and what was not. However calling all of it a drain is definitely misguided.
she [Patnaik] consistently ignores research that would tend to cut the economic impact of the drain down to size, such as the work on the sources of investment during the industrial revolution (which shows that industrialisation was financed by the ploughed-back profits of industrialists) or the costs of empire school (which stresses the high price of imperial defence)
Since tropical goods were highly prized in other cold temperate countries which could never produce them, in effect these free goods represented international purchasing power for Britain which kept a part for its own use and re-exported the balance to other countries in Europe and North America against import of food grains, iron and other goods in which it was deficient.Re-exports necessarily adds value to goods when the goods are processed and when the goods are transported. The country with the largest navy at the time would presumably be in very good stead to do the latter.
The British historians Phyllis Deane and WA Cole presented an incorrect estimate of Britain’s 18th-19th century trade volume, by leaving out re-exports completely. I found that by 1800 Britain’s total trade was 62% higher than their estimate, on applying the correct definition of trade including re-exports, that is used by the United Nations and by all other international organisations.While interesting, and certainly expected for such an old book, re-exporting necessarily adds value to goods.
When the Crown took over from the Company, from 1861 a clever system was developed under which all of India’s financial gold and forex earnings from its fast-rising commodity export surplus with the world, was intercepted and appropriated by Britain. As before up to a third of India’s rising budgetary revenues was not spent domestically but was set aside as ‘expenditure abroad’.So, what does this mean? Britain appropriated all of India's earnings, and then spent a third of it aboard? Not exactly. She is describing home charges see Roy (2019) again:
Some of the expenditures on defense and administration were made in sterling and went out of the country. This payment by the government was known as the Home Charges. For example, interest payment on loans raised to finance construction of railways and irrigation works, pensions paid to retired officers, and purchase of stores, were payments in sterling. [...] almost all money that the government paid abroad corresponded to the purchase of a service from abroad. [...] The balance of payments system that emerged after 1800 was based on standard business principles. India bought something and paid for it. State revenues were used to pay for wages of people hired abroad, pay for interest on loans raised abroad, and repatriation of profits on foreign investments coming into India. These were legitimate market transactions.Indeed, if paying for what you buy is drain, then several billions of us are drained every day.
The Secretary of State for India in Council, based in London, invited foreign importers to deposit with him the payment (in gold, sterling and their own currencies) for their net imports from India, and these gold and forex payments disappeared into the yawning maw of the SoS’s account in the Bank of England.It should be noted that India having two heads was beneficial, and encouraged investment per Roy (2019):
The fact that the India Office in London managed a part of the monetary system made India creditworthy, stabilized its currency, and encouraged foreign savers to put money into railways and private enterprise in India. Current research on the history of public debt shows that stable and large colonies found it easier to borrow abroad than independent economies because the investors trusted the guarantee of the colonist powers.
Against India’s net foreign earnings he issued bills, termed Council bills (CBs), to an equivalent rupee value. The rate (between gold-linked sterling and silver rupee) at which the bills were issued, was carefully adjusted to the last farthing, so that foreigners would never find it more profitable to ship financial gold as payment directly to Indians, compared to using the CB route. Foreign importers then sent the CBs by post or by telegraph to the export houses in India, that via the exchange banks were paid out of the budgeted provision of sums under ‘expenditure abroad’, and the exporters in turn paid the producers (peasants and artisans) from whom they sourced the goods.Sunderland (2013) argues CBs had two main roles (and neither were part of a grand plot to keep gold out of India):
Council bills had two roles. They firstly promoted trade by handing the IO some control of the rate of exchange and allowing the exchange banks to remit funds to India and to hedge currency transaction risks. They also enabled the Indian government to transfer cash to England for the payment of its UK commitments.
The United Nations (1962) historical data for 1900 to 1960, show that for three decades up to 1928 (and very likely earlier too) India posted the second highest merchandise export surplus in the world, with USA in the first position. Not only were Indians deprived of every bit of the enormous international purchasing power they had earned over 175 years, even its rupee equivalent was not issued to them since not even the colonial government was credited with any part of India’s net gold and forex earnings against which it could issue rupees. The sleight-of-hand employed, namely ‘paying’ producers out of their own taxes, made India’s export surplus unrequited and constituted a tax-financed drain to the metropolis, as had been correctly pointed out by those highly insightful classical writers, Dadabhai Naoroji and RCDutt.It doesn't appear that others appreciate their insight Roy (2019):
K. N. Chaudhuri rightly calls such practice ‘confused’ economics ‘coloured by political feelings’.
Surplus budgets to effect such heavy tax-financed transfers had a severe employment–reducing and income-deflating effect: mass consumption was squeezed in order to release export goods. Per capita annual foodgrains absorption in British India declined from 210 kg. during the period 1904-09, to 157 kg. during 1937-41, and to only 137 kg by 1946.Dewey (1978) points out reliability issues with Indian agriculutural statistics, however this calorie decline persists to this day. Some of it is attributed to less food being consumed at home Smith (2015), a lower infectious disease burden Duh & Spears (2016) and diversified diets Vankatesh et al. (2016).
If even a part of its enormous foreign earnings had been credited to it and not entirely siphoned off, India could have imported modern technology to build up an industrial structure as Japan was doing.This is, unfortunately, impossible to prove. Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication that India would've united (this is arguably more plausible than the given counterfactual1). Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication India would not have been nuked in WW2, much like Japan. Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication India would not have been invaded by lizard people,
This article starts from the premise that while economic categories - the extent of commodity production, wage labour, monetarisation of the economy, etc - should be the basis for any analysis of the production relations of pre-British India, it is the nature of class struggles arising out of particular class alignments that finally gives the decisive twist to social change. Arguing on this premise, and analysing the available evidence, this article concludes that there was little potential for industrial revolution before the British arrived in India because, whatever might have been the character of economic categories of that period, the class relations had not sufficiently matured to develop productive forces and the required class struggle for a 'revolution' to take place.A view echoed in Raychaudhuri (1983):
Yet all of this did not amount to an economic situation comparable to that of western Europe on the eve of the industrial revolution. Her technology - in agriculture as well as manufacturers - had by and large been stagnant for centuries. [...] The weakness of the Indian economy in the mid-eighteenth century, as compared to pre-industrial Europe was not simply a matter of technology and commercial and industrial organization. No scientific or geographical revolution formed part of the eighteenth-century Indian's historical experience. [...] Spontaneous movement towards industrialisation is unlikely in such a situation.So now we've established India did not have industrial potential, was India similar to Japan just before the Meiji era? The answer, yet again, unsurprisingly, is no. Japan's economic situation was not comparable to India's, which allowed for Japan to finance its revolution. From Yasuba (1986):
All in all, the Japanese standard of living may not have been much below the English standard of living before industrialization, and both of them may have been considerably higher than the Indian standard of living. We can no longer say that Japan started from a pathetically low economic level and achieved a rapid or even "miraculous" economic growth. Japan's per capita income was almost as high as in Western Europe before industrialization, and it was possible for Japan to produce surplus in the Meiji Period to finance private and public capital formation.The circumstances that led to Meiji Japan were extremely unique. See Tomlinson (1985):
Most modern comparisons between India and Japan, written by either Indianists or Japanese specialists, stress instead that industrial growth in Meiji Japan was the product of unique features that were not reproducible elsewhere. [...] it is undoubtably true that Japan's progress to industrialization has been unique and unrepeatableSo there you have it. Unsubstantiated statistical assumptions, calling any number you can a drain & assuming a counterfactual for no good reason gets you this $45 trillion number. Hopefully that's enough to bury it in the ground.
Perhaps the single greatest and most enduring impact of British rule over India is that it created an Indian nation, in the modern political sense. After centuries of rule by different dynasties overparts of the Indian sub-continent, and after about 100 years of British rule, Indians ceased to be merely Bengalis, Maharashtrians,or Tamils, linguistically and culturally.or see Bryant 2000:
But then, it would be anachronistic to condemn eighteenth-century Indians, who served the British, as collaborators, when the notion of 'democratic' nationalism or of an Indian 'nation' did not then exist. [...] Indians who fought for them, differed from the Europeans in having a primary attachment to a non-belligerent religion, family and local chief, which was stronger than any identity they might have with a more remote prince or 'nation'.
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perior over different cryptocurrencies?
PRESS RELEASEWhy is Bitcoin superior over different cryptocurrencies?Akshay KSPublished a pair of weeks agoon August 12, 2020By Akshay KS
During this technical world, bitcoin is the foremost used digital currency all over the world. However the main question then arises within the minds of the many folks is why bitcoin is considered the foremost superior over other cryptocurrenc Bitcoin Freedom
Bitcoin is that the one method of creating transactions daily as alternative currencies. But it's its options and uniqueness that make it superior. Bitcoin and different currencies are based mostly on the cryptographic algorithms or mathematics that are encrypted, with that the user becomes the owner of the currency. Bitcoin currencies are easily accessible at Bitcoin ATM and online exchange
The main feature of the bitcoin, which makes it superior is that it is the safest option for digital transactions. These will be used for on-line searching and transfer of money too.
There are many alternative blessings to using bitcoin. A number of them are mentioned below
Decentralized and digital
Bitcoin offers the freedom of exchanging the price without representatives that proves helpful in controlling the lower fees and high funds. Bitcoin is that the faster method of transaction than others. It is secure as it is free from theft and frauds and is constant. The main advantage is that bitcoin has its homeowners whereas the bank controls the money.
Makes online looking
Normally, bitcoin will be used for on-line shopping too. Bitcoin is the opposite face of e-wallet, that is created by blockchain technology that is used to store money and will easily pay everywhere digitally. For this reason, it also makes your searching easy by which you'll be able to look from your home solely
Bitcoin is accepted globally at each corner of the planet, which makes it less volatile than local currencies or cash. This feature makes it superior because it enables us to form transactions on-line and across the boundaries
Bitcoin unable the means of tracking cash
Bitcoin is created by blockchain technology. Blockchain is the sole technology which will either make it or break it. There are many computers which are used to keep up a permanent record of each bitcoin transactions with the help of cryptographic technique. In this approach, it becomes a lot of valuable together with the tracking of the payment. At the same time, there's no method of tracking the cash
While not any transformation method, it will be used over the entire world. It provides the simplest platform for the investment as it is free from the restrictions of governments or banks. It provides an open market and combines the simplest of gold and money.
Bitcoin provides the power to access the balance of the users with a password which is named a personal key. It additionally permits the exchange of values through the web without any middle person. Thus, bitcoin becomes safer, stuffed with privacy, and open to everyone
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TOKYO - The dollar held overnight gains on Tuesday following seven weeks of an almost relentless fall as investors clung to hopes of a bi-partisan stimulus deal in Washington and U.S. bond yields rebounded from multi-month lows.
The dollar index jumped back to 93.597 from Friday's two-year low of 92.495.
The dollar stood little changed at 105.96 yen.
U.S. congressional leaders and Trump administration officials said on Monday they were ready to resume negotiations on a coronavirus aid deal, although it was unclear whether Democrats and Republicans would be able to bridge their differences.
China imposed sanctions on 11 U.S. citizens, including Republican lawmakers, following Washington's sanctions on Hong Kong and Chinese officials.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said companies from China and other countries that do not comply with accounting standards will be delisted from U.S. stock exchanges as of the end of 2021.
LONDON - The greenback steadied on Friday but was set for its biggest weekly drop in three weeks as caution over growing coronavirus infections cast doubt over the U.S. economic outlook while a bounce in stocks pushed the kiwi dollar higher.
The governor of Texas temporarily halted the state's reopening on Thursday as COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations surged.
With markets undecided between hopes of a quick economic recovery and fears of a second wave of infections, investors focused on the dovish minutes by the European Central Bank this week to keep its stimulus policies in place for a while.
The euro EUR=EBS edged 0.1% higher versus the dollar and was set for its biggest rise in three weeks.
The New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 led currency gainers as encouraging recent data prompted investors to add risk positions despite the surge in infection rates.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar fetched $0.6888 AUD=D4, stuck in its rough $0.68-0.70 range in the past couple of weeks.
TOKYO - The dollar edged higher on Monday as worries about a standoff between the United States and China over civil liberties in Hong Kong fuelled demand for safe-haven currencies.
A senior White House official has said Beijing's plan to impose a security law on the former British colony of Hong Kong could lead to U.S. sanctions, which could worsen an already tense relationship between the world's two-largest economies.
"Things were already bad, and it is likely to get worse because of the Hong Kong security law. This supports risk-off trades, which is positive for the dollar and the yen."
China's proposed national security legislation for Hong Kong could lead to U.S. sanctions and threaten the city's status as a financial hub, White House National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien said on Sunday.
Hong Kong police fired tear gas and water cannons to disperse thousands of people who rallied on Sunday to protest Beijing's national security law.
The threat of sanctions over Hong Kong risks a repeat of last year's damaging trade war between the United States and China.
LONDON - The dollar gained on Friday and is set for its biggest weekly rise since early April as the euro weakened after a European Union meeting on Thursday to build a trillion euro emergency fund fell short of satisfying investors' concerns.
The euro weakened broadly on Friday, falling 0.4% against the U.S. dollar to a one-month low at $1.07275 and a three-year low versus the yen at 115.55 yen.
Though the outcome of the EU meeting fell short on details on the fund, specifically in terms of how it will be financed or whether it will be linked to the EU budget, some analysts took heart from the fact that the meeting didn't break up in acrimony.
The euro's losses sent the greenback on track for its biggest weekly rise since early April.
Against a basket of its rivals, the dollar was up 0.2% at 100.72.
The Aussie and kiwi each shed about 0.2%, holding the kiwi below 60 cents at $0.5996 and the Aussie at $0.6359, beneath resistance around 64 cents per dollar.
SYDNEY/TOKYO - The dollar nursed savage losses against the yen and euro on Friday as a plunge in U.S. yields to record lows wiped out the currency's single greatest attraction for investors - higher interest rates.
The resulting collapse in Treasury yields - which fell another 10 basis points in Asia - has been the death of one of the most popular carry trades globally - borrowing at negative rates in the euro and yen to buy U.S. assets.
"Select USD pairs like EUUSD are turning because of a dramatic and decisive shift in U.S. rate expectations and related spreads," said Alan Ruskin, global head of G10 FX strategy at Deutsche Bank.
There were lots of other miserable milestones, with the dollar sinking to a six-month low on the yen at 105.83, having shed 1.2% overnight.
The Australian dollar lost 0.3% to fetch $0.6585, off this week's high of $0.6646 as its rebound from 11-year lows of $0.64345 hit a week ago lost steam.
The Canadian dollar traded at C$1.3412 per U.S. dollar, near a nine-month low of C$1.3465 set last Friday.
TOKYO - The dollar fell to a five-month low versus the yen after an emergency 50 basis point cut in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve was deemed insufficient to offset downside risks posed by the global spread of the coronavirus.
The euro was one of the currencies to benefit most from the broad-based dollar weakness as traders bet the Fed will cut rates more than the European Central Bank.
"This Fed rate cut is bad for dollayen, partly because Treasury yields are now very low. The dollar's weakness is reflected in the euro, because the Fed will likely ease more that the ECB.".
The Fed surprised investors by cutting rates by 50 basis points to a target range of 1.00% to 1.25% on Tuesday, two weeks ahead of a regularly scheduled policy meeting.
Interest rate futures traders pricing in a 51.4% probability of a further 25 basis point cut in April, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
The rate cut failed to arrest a sell-off in U.S. equities and sent benchmark 10-year Treasury yields crashing to a record low 0.906%, further reducing the appeal of the dollar.
LONDON - The dollar recouped some losses on Wednesday as traders looked to see which other major central banks might follow the U.S. Federal Reserve and make emergency cuts to their interest rates.
The euro has been one of the currencies to climb on the broad-based dollar weakness of recent weeks and it had slipped back to $1.1145 ahead of U.S. trading from Tuesday's two-month high at $1.12135.
"We are looking at how the central bank community is going to react now," said TD Securities' European Head of Currency strategy, Ned Rumpeltin.
"The dollar's weakness is reflected in the euro, because the Fed will likely ease more than the ECB," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.
"The resurgence of Joe Biden will help to dampen some of the downside risks for the U.S. dollar given fears over a sharper shift to the left under Bernie Sanders have eased," wrote MUFG currency analyst Lee Hardman.
In the Chinese onshore market, the yuan touched asix-week high of 6.9288 per dollar, another sign of the dollar's weak bias.
Across mainland China there were 2,015 new confirmed infections as of Tuesday, the lowest daily rise since Jan. 30.
The Australian dollar, sensitive to China's fortunes because of Australia's commodity-driven export profile, firmed 0.3% to $0.6728 AUD=D3.
Oil prices, a barometer of global energy demand and so of growth, remain nearly a fifth lower than they were before the outbreak.
The currencies of oil exporters such as Canada and Norway have been hammered, with the krone NOK= shedding 5% this year and the loonie CAD=D3 hitting a four-month low on Monday.
"The main impact of coronavirus for Europe is growth," said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research at Standard Chartered.
"The euro area started the year with low growth and an ECB largely out of policy options...(a) bad scenario could see an extension of recent moves and EUUSD may head towards the $1.04/05 lows of the European debt crisis."
BENGALURU - The coronavirus outbreak grabbing the world's attention and which has likely wreaked havoc on its second-largest economy is set to give safe-haven currencies another lift over the coming month, a Reuters poll of market strategists found.
Analysts said the U.S. dollar index - calculated against a basket of six currencies - and the Japanese yen were both likely to gain a maximum of around 3% if the outbreak worsened.
All three are viewed as de facto safe-haven currencies, with the yen and franc the only major currencies to have made any gains against the dollar this year.
A majority of analysts - 46 of 52 - who answered a separate question said emerging-market currencies were at significant risk of weakening over the next three months.
Demand for safe-haven currencies was not expected to last, with most analysts predicting the dollar would lose against all major currencies over the next 12 months.
The dependence of the global economy on the United States and the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency means any downside is most likely to be limited.
TOKYO - The dollar held firm at start of holiday-thinned week on Monday after U.S. data pointed to solid economic growth while the British pound found some stability after having suffered its biggest weekly fall in three years.
A batch of economic data published on Friday showed the U.S. economy, already in its longest expansion in history, appears to have maintained the moderate pace of growth as the year ended, supported by a strong labour market.
Earlier this year, investors were spooked by fear of a U.S. recession when the U.S. yield curve inverted, which has been historically one of the most reliable signs of a U.S. recession.
Separate data showed consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.4% last month as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and spent more on healthcare.
Against the yen, the dollar was traded at 109.47 yen JPY=, up 0.04% from late U.S. levels, not far from six-month high of 109.73 touched earlier this month.
The dollar tumbled as much as 4.4% on the second trading day of this year as a lack of yen liquidity due to Japanese market holiday amplified the dollayen's fall sparked by a rare revenue warning from Apple Inc. Currency speculators have cut their net short positions in the yen slightly in week that ended last Tuesday after having increased bets against the currency constantly for a few months, data from U.S. financial watchdog showed on Friday.
LONDON - Barclays, JP Morgan, RBS, UBS and Citigroup are being sued by investors over allegations they rigged the global foreign exchange market, in a test of U.S.-style class actions in Britain.
Litigators have long hoped to replicate in Britain the success of U.S. class action claims against banks, including Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Barclays, that have resulted $2.3 billion in settlements for big investors.
In May the European Union fined five banks a combined 1.07 billion euros for forex rigging through cartels of traders known as "Essex Express" and "Three Way Banana Split".
O'Higgins told Reuters the total value of the claim would depend on the number of forex trades executed in London for UK-domiciled units - which will be automatically included in the action - and the proportional impact of rate rigging on these.
CLASS ACTION TEST. The "Massive" action is a "Perfect" case to be brought as a so-called opt-out collective class action for breaches of UK or European Union competition law, David Scott told Reuters.
This wrangling has already delayed other class actions and some law firms have chosen a different legal route for offering pension funds, asset managers and other institutional investors the chance to hold banks to account.
LONDON - The U.S. dollar weakened to its lowest since mid-April on Tuesday as investors bet the Federal Reserve could soon cut interest rates, while concerns about global growth encouraged investors to buy the safe-haven yen.
The euro rose on the back of dollar weakness but lower-than-expected euro zone inflation in May brought the single currency's rally to a halt.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to its lowest since September 2017 overnight after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said a rate cut "May be warranted soon" given weak U.S. inflation and the threat global trade tensions pose to economic growth.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, slipped to 96.995, its weakest since April 18, before recovering as the euro reversed its gains.
"We still see the policy background in the euro zone leaving the euro as the anti-dollar," said Adam Cole, currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, predicting euro/dollar could fall to $1.10 before finishing the year at $1.14 - still firmly within its current trading range.
The Australian dollar was little changed, at $0.6977, after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates to a record low of 1.25%, as expected.
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